Foreclosure Activity in New Hampshire – Foreclosures up in Q3 for first time since 2011

Foreclosure Compass - New Hampshire Foreclosure Data  

Welcome to our first examination of foreclosure trend data for New Hampshire.  We have been following Massachusetts data for about a year now but had not found as good a source for data in New Hampshire.  While I do not love how all the data is presented this quarterly data is much better than what I have seen elsewhere and hope to make this a regular addition to our reports.

Check out the source data at the end if you want to see more in-depth analysis of other metrics, but in this report we are going to focus just on the foreclosure deeds recorded.  There are some interesting discussions on foreclosure initiations and auctions but the lack of raw data makes it hard to do our own analysis so we will not discuss those specifically.

Recent New Hampshire Foreclosure Activity:

Unlike what we have seen with Massachusetts foreclosures New Hampshire has mostly continued to see year over year declines in most metrics.  This has been slowing down but has generally just started to plateau to levels closer to what was seen in the early part of the past real estate crisis.  However in the 3rd quarter of 2015 foreclosure deeds had their first year over year quarterly increase since 2011.  They were also up over the previous quarter and are at their highest levels since the 2nd quarter of 2014.  The 493 foreclosure deeds recorded were a 15% increase from the 3rd quarter of 2014 and a sizable 41% increase from the previous quarter.  It is also worth noting that this quarter over quarter increase is very large and unexpected.  The normal seasonality has the number of foreclosure deeds fall from Q2 to Q3 so a 41% increase is even more striking.  This is the first time that Q3 has been higher than Q2 since 2010, which was a much smaller increase than this.

However, because this was a reverse of the trend, overall foreclosure deeds are still down for the state through the 1st three quarters of 2015 compared to the same time period in 2014.  Through three quarters there have been 1,280 foreclosure deeds recorded compared to the 1,595 in 2014 for a 19.75% decrease year over year.

What Does This Mean For The Market? :

Since this is our first time looking at the New Hampshire data we cannot make as good predictions as with the Massachusetts data.  However it is interesting to see this quarter having a much different pattern than most of the last few years in New Hampshire.  It will be interesting to see what the data looks like next quarter to see if this pattern continues or if it was just a onetime anomaly.  If it is a reverse of the trend it could be the initial indicator of a softening market and eventual market correction.

Conclusion:

Since this is the first time with this kind of an increase in a long time it is hard to say exactly what is going on.  Things will look a little clearer once we see the data next quarter.  At this time I would guess that this is not just a one off and foreclosure activity will start to increase for New Hampshire.  In Massachusetts there has been increases in foreclosure petitions for 21 months in a row and all foreclosure metrics are higher than they were in 2014 (petitions, auctions and deeds).  Foreclosure deeds specifically are up 19.0% year to date in MA, though November.  So why are we talking about Massachusetts foreclosure data in a discussion of the New Hampshire market?  The reason I am pointing these things out is that in MA there were signs of market issues as early as 2004 and the bubble was in full deflation mode by 2005, but in most of the country, including New Hampshire, that didn’t really happen until 2006 or later.  Therefore I think that there is a good chance that New Hampshire is going to start to see an overall increase in foreclosure activity similar to what started in MA about 1.5 years ago.  I feel more confident in this position since there has been more talk on the national level of many markets seeing a small increase in foreclosures.

 

Do you need to sell your New Hampshire (or Massachusetts) house fast?  If you would like to sell your home fast and hassle free schedule a consultation with us today.

 

 

All data for this article from New Hampshire Housing

Third Quarter 2015 Data:  http://www.nhhfa.org/data-planning/foreclosure/ForeclosureUpdate_12-15.html

 

 

 

 

 

(Image Credit: foreclosure compass via NH Business Review)

 

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