Real Estate Trends – Boston’s South End (Condos) #2

Introduction:

Welcome back again for our latest real estate market trend report.  For those of you that are here for the first time what we do in these reports is examine the real estate market in a city or town in Massachusetts or New Hampshire to evaluate the current conditions.  We do this by looking at the changes in three key metrics year over year for the municipality to see how the market has changed and then evaluate what those observations might mean for that market moving forward.

Today we are again highlighting the Condo market in the South End Section of Boston, MA in Suffolk County

 Braddock Park in Boston's South End - Boston MA' South End Real Estate

We looked at Condos in the South End recently back in December, where we saw the market was down some with a large decline in the average prices but smaller decreases in the medians.

Market Trends in Boston’s South End – February 2015 and 2016:

The Condo market in Boston, MA’s South End neighborhood has fallen off since last year.   The average prices were down and the median prices were down by even more.  However the days on market are down some at first glance and this might actually be understated.  Inventory was down slightly with 18 sales in February of 2015 and up to 16 in February 2016. 

Average Listing Prices:

We will first start off by looking at the average listing price.  For condos in the South End section of Boston, MA the average listing price in February 2015 was $1,170,106.  This was down to $1,071,401 in February 2016.  This gives a good sized decrease of 8.44% year over year. 

Looking at the median prices we see that it was much lower in both years.  For February of 2015 the median listing price for condos in Boston, MA’s South End was $887,000 and in February 2016 it was $704,500 which now gives an extremely large decrease of 20.57%. 

Average Sale Prices:

The next thing we will be looking at is the average sale prices.  The average sale price for a condo in Boston, MA’s South End section in February of 2015 was $1,164,121 and in February 2016 that was down to $1,073,474.  That gives a bit smaller decrease of 7.79% compared to the average list price. 

We see basically the same pattern as we did with the listing prices for the median sale prices.  For February of 2015 the median sales price for South End condos was $928,250 and in February 2016 it was $693,625 giving another much larger decrease of 25.28%, and the largest of the 4 by a good amount.

All of our pricing metrics shows that prices are down a bit for condos in the South End neighborhood of Boston, MA this month.  Interestingly it is a different pattern than we saw last time, as well as being a more extreme and definitive drop.  Back in December we saw the averages down in the higher teens but medians only down in the 2-5% range.  The medians are now the higher drop and even the lowest one is still down just under 8%.  So pricing looks worse than it was a few months ago. 

As for exactly how big the current drops are there is quite a big gap from the 7.5-8.5% range seen with the averages and the more than 20-25% one seen in the medians.  Medians are the preferred method for real estate analysis so we would always tend to put more weight on those, especially the median sale price.  In this case there are reasons to see why this is the preferred metric, as you can see that a couple sales that were at the very top to the market definitely brought the average up a lot for 2016.  While in contrast only 2 of the 18 sales in 2015 were less than the 2016 median and the 4 lowest sales were all in 2016 (as well as 5 of the lowest 6 and 9 of the lowest 11).  This supports the idea that the market is in fact down a lot but the averages are artificially propped up by a stronger showing in the high end of the market.  Given this information prices do appear to be down a lot, at least 20% and probably closer to the 25% seen in the median sale price.

Average Days on Market:

Finally the last metric we look at are the average days on market, which is the measure of how long it takes for a property to sell in the current market.  For condos in Boston, MA’s South End section the average days on market in February of 2015 were 67.72 and the average days on market for February 2016 were 47.19 for a pretty large 30.32% decrease. 

However, as we have seen many times before in our previous posts for AbingtonBedfordSeekonk, BelmontTopsfieldCanton,  Dracut (Condos)HamiltonWakefield, Amesbury (Condos), Dracut #2, Taunton, Reading, Stoughton, Wrentham, Stoneham, Dedham, Nashua, NH, Tewksbury, Brockton (Multifamily), Lowell (Multifamily), Acton, Foxboro, Pembroke, Chelmsford, BeverlyFramingham (Condos), Plymouth County (Condos), Marlborough, Billerica, Waltham, Dracut (Condos) #2, Derry, NH, Framingham, Burlington, Duxbury, Acton #2 , Taunton (Condos), Tyngsborough, Milton, Salem, NH, Boston’s Hyde Park, Boston’s West Roxbury , Somerville, Canton #3, Pelham, NH, Westford, Plymouth (Condos), Boston’s Jamaica Plain , Halifax,Braintree (Condos), Newton (Multifamily), Plainville ,Boxford, Wayland , West Bridgewater, East Bridgewater, Marlborough (Condos), Natick (Condos), Gloucester, (Condos), Melrose (Condos),Norton (Condos), Newburyport, Atkinson, NH, Fairhaven, Lexington, Arlington (Condos), Salisbury, Weston, Groton, Wellesley, Littleton, Lowell (Condos) #2, East Boston (Condos), Dedham #3, Hanover, Canton (Condos), Belmont #2, Seabrook, NH, Hingham (Condos), Lakeville, Raynham, Holliston, Londonderry, NH, Georgetown, South Boston (Condos), Needham #2, Arlington #2, Foxboro #2, Boston’s Roslindale (Condos), Burlington #2 and Salem NH #2 outliers in the data can really skew these numbers.  This again is the case for South End condos in February.  In this instance there was a very high days on market place in 2016.

In 2016 there was a property with 238 days on market; this was almost as much as the next 4 properties combined and over 31.5% of the total days on market for all 16 Properties.  When removed the new calculation for the remaining 15 properties gives an average days on market of 34.47. 

Using the adjusted numbers we now get a decrease of 49.10%.  This does not change the general conclusion of the days on market being down.  Now instead of a fairly large drop we see that it is actually much larger than it initially looks. 

South End, Massachusetts Summary:

The South End, Massachusetts real estate condo market is down a good amount since last year.  The average prices were down somewhat with the median prices being down by a significantly more substantial amount.  The days on market were down a large amount though, which definitely could be used to refute a drop in the market.  However, this just is not enough to counteract price drops over 20%.

In summary if you are looking to sell a condo in Boston, MA’s South End neighborhood now you should expect to get less for it than you would have gotten last year.  However you can also expect it to take a lot less time to sell compared to last year as well. 

 

Do you need to sell your South End, Massachusetts condo fast?  If you would like to sell your home fast and hassle free schedule a consultation with us today.

Please share your questions and comments below.

 

 

 

(Image credit: Braddock Park in Boston’s South End by Payton Chung via Wikipedia)

 

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