Real Estate Trends – Hanover, Massachusetts

Introduction:

Welcome back again for our latest real estate market trend report.  For those of you that are here for the first time what we do in these reports is examine the real estate market in a city or town in Massachusetts or New Hampshire to evaluate the current conditions.  We do this by looking at the changes in three key metrics year over year for the municipality to see how the market has changed and then evaluate what those observations might mean for that market moving forward.

Today we are highlighting the market in Hanover, MA in Plymouth County

 John Curtis Library Hanover MA - Hanover Massachusetts Real Estate

Market Trends in Hanover, MA – November 2014 and 2015:

The Hanover, MA market has fallen off a bit since last year.   The average prices were both down a lot.  The median prices were down significantly as well.  The days on market appear to be up some as well, though as we have seen in the past this might not be fully accurate.  Inventory was down by almost half with 17 sales in November of 2014 and only 9 in November 2015. 

Average Listing Prices:

Starting off we are going to look at the average listing price.  For Hanover, MA the average listing price in November 2014 was $455,747.  This was down to $412,722 in November 2015.  This gives a noticeable decrease of 9.44% year over year. 

Looking at the median prices we see that it was significantly higher than the average in 2014 and significantly lower than the average in 2015.  For November of 2014 the median listing price for Hanover, MA was $499,000 and in November 2015 it was $350,000 which now gives a substantially larger decrease of 29.86%.

Average Sale Prices:

The next thing we will be looking at is the average sale prices.  The average sale price for Hanover, MA in November of 2014 was $444,406 and in November 2015 that was down to $406,156.  That gives a fairly similar 8.61% decrease compared to the average listing price. 

We see a similar pattern with the median sale prices as we did for the listing prices for both years.  For November of 2014 the median sales price for Hanover, MA was $499,000 and in November 2015 it was $349,500 giving another significantly larger decrease of 29.96%.

Prices are definitely down in Hanover, MA this month.  The question is exactly how much as there are different conclusions to be made depending on which data you look at.  We easily conclude that they are down minimally in the 8-10% range indicated by the average prices.  In these types of analyses median prices are generally the preferred metric.  These showed much larger price drops of about 30%. 

However this is a case where art and science need to meet and look at the raw numbers a little more.  In both years there was a very large gap on one side of the median to the next house (recall the median in the middle value, so half above and half below that price point).  So a single additional sale in either year that pushed the median in that direction would have changed the conclusion a lot (but likely not much for the averages) so while I would still give significant weight to the medians I would not say that I feel that based on this data that someone should expect to get 30% less than they would have last year.  The truth probably lies in the middle around 20%, give or take a little.

Average Days on Market:

Finally the last metric we look at are the average days on market, which is the measure of how long it takes for a property to sell in the current market.  For Hanover, MA the average days on market in November of 2014 were 75.94 and the average days on market for November 2015 were 97.11 for a decent 27.88% increase. 

However, as we have seen many times before in our previous posts for AbingtonBedfordSeekonk, BelmontTopsfieldCanton,  Dracut (Condos)HamiltonWakefield, Amesbury (Condos), Dracut #2, Taunton, Reading, Stoughton, Wrentham, Stoneham, Dedham, Nashua, NH, Tewksbury, Brockton (Multifamily), Lowell (Multifamily), Acton, Foxboro, Pembroke, Chelmsford, BeverlyFramingham (Condos), Plymouth County (Condos), Marlborough, Billerica, Waltham, Dracut (Condos) #2, Derry, NH, Framingham, Burlington, Duxbury, Acton #2 , Taunton (Condos), Tyngsborough, Milton, Salem, NH, Boston’s Hyde Park, Boston’s West Roxbury , Somerville, Canton #3, Pelham, NH, Westford, Plymouth (Condos), Boston’s Jamaica Plain , Halifax,Braintree (Condos), Newton (Multifamily), Plainville ,Boxford, Wayland , West Bridgewater, East Bridgewater, Marlborough (Condos), Natick (Condos), Gloucester, (Condos), Melrose (Condos),Norton (Condos), Newburyport, Atkinson, NH, Fairhaven, Lexington, Arlington (Condos), Salisbury, Weston, Groton, Wellesley, Littleton, Lowell (Condos) #2, East Boston (Condos) and Dedham #3 outliers in the data can really skew these numbers.  This again is the case for Hanover, MA in November.  In this instance there was a very high days on market place in the 2015 data.

In 2015 there was a property with 419 days on market; this was more than the next 5 properties combined and almost 48% of the total days on market for all 9 Properties.  When removed the new calculation for the remaining 8 properties gives an average days on market of 56.88. 

Using the adjusted numbers we now see a similar decrease of 25.10%.  This totally changes the general conclusion of the days on market being up and now they appear to be down a fair amount. 

It is worth noting that there was a high days on market in 2014 as well, however our practice is to only eliminate the “no brainer” level of outliers.  The data point in 2014 did not rise to that level and our feelings are that the effort to do a rigorous statistical analysis is not justified for these days on market observations.  So in my opinion there is a very good chance that point should be eliminated too, which would make things look much more flat, but I can’t say with certainty it should be and therefore did not eliminate it.

Hanover, Mass Summary:

The Hanover, Massachusetts real estate market is down a bit since last year.  The average prices were down some and median prices were down by substantially more.  The days on market were down some though after reevaluating the data, which is a plus but does not make up for the significant price drops. 

In summary if you are looking to sell a property in Hanover, MA now you should expect to get a lot less for it than you would have gotten last year.  However you can also expect it to take less time to sell compared to last year. 

 

Do you need to sell your Hanover, Massachusetts house fast?  If you would like to sell your home fast and hassle free schedule a consultation with us today.

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(Image credit: John Curtis Free Library Hanover, MA by John Phelan via Wikipedia)